基于峰值预测模型的中国石油产量合理规划

Reasonable planning of oil production in China based on peak oil model

基于石油产量峰值预测模型,在不进行石油产量合理规划的情况下,中国的石油产量峰值时间将在2017年前后出现,峰值产量约为18500万t;而石油消费高峰将在2034年前后出现,高达63300万t左右,届时全国的石油产量已进入递减阶段,对外依存度将高达73%左右,石油供需矛盾及石油安全问题将更加突出。分析认为,应该对国内石油产量进行合理规划:降低当前的石油产量,将石油峰值产量降到17000万t左右,使产量峰值时间推到2030年左右,从而使得石油的产量高峰和需求高峰基本吻合,可相应地减少石油进口,从而降低石油对外依存度,保障石油供应的安全。

In China, if oil production were not planned rationally, the peak of oil production would occur round 2017, the peak production would be about 185 million tons based on peak oil models; and the peak of oil consumption would occur around 2034, the peak oil consumption about 633 million tons, at that time, the national oil production would have entered a decline stage, and dependence on the outside would be as high as about 73%, the contradiction between oil supply and demand and oil security would become more prominent. China should do the oil production planning： reduce the present oil production in order to reduce the peak production to 170 million tons and put off the peak time to about 2030, so as to make the time of the peak oil production match the time of the peak demand; and drop the amount of oil import properly to ensure the safety of petroleum resources and decrease the dependence on oil import.