2006年黄金市场评述及2007年展望

Review of Gold Marked in 2006 and Forecast for 2007

回顾了2006年黄金市场的价格走势,分析了影响黄金价格的主要因素。2006年,在国际原油价格高涨、美元疲软以及全球通货膨胀的影响下,金价持续上涨,从1月初的520美元/盎司上涨至5月中旬的720美元/盎司,涨幅达到了38.46%。之后,在基金大量抛售的打压下,金价又出现了雪崩式的下跌,几乎接近上涨时的起点。下半年,金价处于宽幅区间震荡。2007年,黄金市场利好因素犹在,因此金价大部分时间可能会处于高位区间震荡,但预计不会再现2006年暴涨的局面。

Most commodity was crazy in 2006. Its price has touched history high. Gold price was also crazy in 2006, especially in the first half year. Gold price soared at 720S/oz in May from 502S/oz in January and increased by 38.46%. The driven factors are higher oil price, soft dollar and global inflationary. However, after the middle of May, gold price collapsed and fell at the jumping-off point because speculative fund sell off heavy. In second half year, the price fluctuated in interzone by and large. In 2007, dollar will continue soft and oil price will probably rise again, but the extent may not be large. So we expect gold price will fluctuate in high price, but the soared trend like that of 2006 will not appear.