基于熵权法的济南市水安全时间序列研究

Time-series Analysis in Water Security Assessment of Jinan city Based on Entropy Weight

人口压力、水污染等全球性问题已经使得水安全重要性越来越突出,如何有效地评价和监测水安全对于人类可持续发展具有重要的意义。首先分析了目前我国水安全问题,在此基础上以济南市为例,采用改进的PSR模型构建济南市水安全评价指标体系,通过熵权法确定指标权重,计算出2000年以来济南市水安全评价综合指数序列,并在此基础上进行相关分析与预测。结果表明：济南市水安全指数逐年升高,压力、状态、响应呈现不同的变化幅度,人类社会经济活动对水环境的影响较大。最后提出了解决济南市水安全问题的保障措施。

Global problems like population pressure, water pollution and so on have already make people recognize that the water security is becoming more and more important. Assessing and monitoring the water security effectively is significant to the human sustainable development. Firstly the article discussed the problems of water security in China, on which taken Jinan as the example, used the improved PSR model to construct water security assessment indicator system of water security in Jinan. Index weights of water security assessment indicators were determined by entropy method. Then get composite indexes of water security assessment since 2000, on the basis of it carry through the correlation analysis and forecast. The results expressed that the composite index of Jinan had been increasing since 2000, with different modes of pressure, state and response. Human economical activities have played an important role for that. Finally some suggestions were taken for water security problem.