浅析我国的贸易顺差问题——从人口角度分析

Analyze Trade Surplus in China——From the Respect of Population

运用生命周期假说对中国两次“婴儿潮”进行分析,探讨中国人口相关因素对于储蓄的影响,以及储蓄增加与中国净出口之间的关联。在此基础上,实证分析投资、政府支出、储蓄与净出口的关系。基本的结论是:应正视中国人口增长所带来的内部矛盾,从内部解决矛盾,而不是通过外部的不平衡来平衡内部矛盾。

Based on the life-cycle hypothesis, this paper first analyzes two ＂baby booms＂ in China, and then reveals effects of demographic factors on savings and how increases of savings would also affect net exports. Combined with this and empirical analysis, this thesis discusses the relationships among investments, government purchases, savings and net exports. The basic conclusion is that China should address the internal conflicts arising from population growth, and resolve this contradiction from internal respects, instead of tackling it through external imbalances.