基于用户需求灰预测的产品原型演化方法研究

Product prototype evolution methodology based on grey prediction of customer′s requirements

通过在量化的多维用户需求指标体系上加上时间维来跟踪用户需求的变化过程,统计各时间段内各需求项目的关注值。用归一化方法得到各需求项目在产品模型中的权重。根据在四个以上的时间段内获得的用户需求权重值建立灰模型。通过该模型预测用户需求的变化趋势,使设计人员能提前掌握用户对产品可能的需求走向。按新息原理更新数据后还可进行滚动预测。最后,给出了用该方法对汽车产品原型进行预测的算例。

To track transform process of customer＇s requirements, time dimension was added in quantified multi-dimension customer＇s requirements index system, statistics of customer＇s requirements from different period with different right using normalization method was also acquired. A requirements＇ grey-system-theory-based Grey Model （GM （1, 1）） was established based on acquired requirements＇ right from at least four periods. Trend on customer＇s requirement was predicted by GM （1, 1）. Designer could use this model to understand possible requirements of product in the future. And scroll prediction could be performed by updated data of new information model. Finally, a case study on carts prototype prediction was provided.