数值预报产品综合判据在天气预报中的评价作用

The Opinion Effect of the Numerical Weather Prediction's Integrative Criterion in Weather Forecast

为适应预报质量评定办法,改善对预报因子潜在信息的评价和提取,该文尝试了应用多种判据综合评价、提取数值预报产品信息。计算从各方面反映预报信息的五个单一判据的加权平均,作为综合评价和提取预报因子潜在信息的客观量级,该方法克服了通用的单一判据的局限性,可以更加全面、客观地评价预报信息,从而提高预报准确率。

In order to fit the estimation means of forecast quality and improve the evaluation and pick-up of potential information of forecast factors. Many criterions were applied to evaluate synthetically and to pick up numerical weather prediction. The calculation reflected the average of five single criterions which imaging forecast information. It conquered the localization of the current single criterion, and judged the predicting information more entirely and objectively which in favor of improving the forecasting veracity.