中国森林生物多样性动态的灰色预测

Grey forecasting of forest biodiversity dynamics in China

我国森林生物多样性动态分析具有少数据和贫信息带来的灰色不确定性,灰色系统理论是进行相关研究的重要工具。在前人工作的基础上,作者根据PSR(Pressure-State-Response)模型计算得到1973-1998年间我国5次森林资源连续清查期内的森林生物多样性指数序列,包括压力指数、森林生态系统多样性指数和森林物种多样性指数,以及由这3个指数建立的森林生物多样性总指数;并建立了各个指数的GM(1,1)灰色模型,预测我国森林生物多样性的动态。结果表明,在未来2个森林资源连续清查期(大约10年),(1)我国森林生物多样性指数将继续增加,且与过去5个森林资源连续清查期相比其增加速度将有所提高;(2)压力指数将维持继续增大的趋势不变;(3)森林生态系统多样性指数将维持在当前水平,有轻微波动;(4)森林物种多样性指数将继续增加,但与过去5个森林资源连续清查期相比其增加速度将渐趋平缓。研究表明,根据PSR模型建立我国森林生物多样性动态的灰色预测模型,适合我国森林资源管理的实际需要。

Analysis of forest biodiversity dynamics in China is characterized by grey uncertainty caused by the paucity of relevant data and information, therefore, grey system theory may be helpful. Based on five surveys of the national Continuous Forest Inventory （CFI） in China during the period 1973-1998, we meas- ured four indices with Pressure-State-Response （PSR） model, including Index of Forest Biodiversity （Ifbd）, Index of Pressure on Forest Biodiversity （Ipr）, Index of Forest Species Diversity （Isp） and Index of Forest Ecosystem Diversity （Ieco）. The dynamics of forest biodiversity in the coming 10 years were also forecast with GM （1,1） grey models. The results predict that, in the coming two CFI periods （five years per CFI interval）, Ifbd would continue increasing with accelerated speed compared with the last five CFI periods. In addition, Ipr would continue increasing, Ieco would fluctuate slightly, and Isp would continue increasing with moderate speed. The research suggests that grey forecasting model based on the PSR method is appropriate for forest resources management in China.