63例口服百草枯中毒患者预后早期评价的Cox比例风险模型分析

Multivariate Prognostic Evaluation of Paraquat Poisoning Patients Using Cox Proportion Hazard Model

目的:对早期评估百草枯中毒预后的相关因素进行评价。方法:随访63例口服百草枯中毒患者,在中毒24小时内统计年龄、口服量、洗胃时间、血液净化时间、口腔溃疡临床分级、白细胞、尿素氮、淀粉酶、心肌酶同工酶(CK-MB)等9项相关因素,应用Cox比例风险模型检验各因素与百草枯中毒后生存时间的关系。结果:年龄、口服量、血液净化时间、口腔溃疡临床分级、白细胞计数、血清淀粉酶是早期评估百草枯中毒患者预后的6个主要因素。洗胃时间、血清尿素氮、血清CK-MB对早期评估预后无显著性差异。结论:应用Cox模型能够分析百草枯中毒患者的预后因素。年龄、口服量、血液净化时间、口腔溃疡临床分级、白细胞计数、血清淀粉酶是早期评估百草枯中毒患者预后的6个主要因素。

Objective： To evaluate the prognostic factors of paraquat poisoning patients. Methods： 63 cases with paraquat poisoning were studied and 9 factors such as age, dose of paraquat, time of gastric lavage, time of hemoperfusion, clinical degrees of dental ulcers, WBC, BUN, AMY and CK - MB were evaluated by Cox＇ s proportional hazard index analysis to locate the significant factors related to prognosis. Results： Age, dose of paraquat, time of hemoperfusion, clinical degrees of dental ulcers, WBC and AMY are the six main factors. No significant difference was found in prognosis with time of gastric lavage, BUN and CK- MB. Conclusions： The prognosis of paraquat poisoning patients might be analyzed by Cox＇s proportional hazard model. Age, dose of paraquat, time of hemoperfusion, clinical degrees of dental ulcers, WBC and AMY may be the main factors related to the early prognosis of paraquat poisoning.