区域水资源供需的系统动力学仿真

Simulation of system dynamics of regional water resources supply and demand

以广东省北江下游影响区为研究范围,基于系统动力学的理论和方法,按照科学发展观的要求,应用系统分析、可持续发展的思路,在系统分析区域水资源供需系统各要素之间及其与人口、经济、社会、生态环境等发展之间互动影响关系的基础上,建立区域水资源供需的系统动力学模型,并进行了动态仿真模拟,认为GDP增长受到水资源不足的制约,因此,在追求经济效益的同时,必须考虑到水资源的可持续利用,而不是"掠夺式"利用,注重GDP增长速度与环境保护的协调发展。

Taking the coverage of Beijiang lower reaches of Guangdong Province as an example,the system dynamics is employed to analyze and simulate the system of regional water resource supply and demand.Different proposals are designed,and effect of short water resources supply on GDP is simulated.Finally,some significant schemes to solve these problems are introduced.