政治信任、社会资本和村民选举参与——基于全国代表性样本调查的实证分析

Impacts of Political Trust and Social Capital on Villagers' Committee Election Participation in China

基于一个具有全国代表性的大样本调查数据,本文将定量研究中国村民选举参与的主、客观影响因素,特别是分析村民对农村基层乡镇党委、政府的主观政治信任对其村级选举参与行为的影响。通过定量分析村民对基层乡镇党委、政府的"政治信任"、村民"社会信任"和社会网络的影响,特别是处理了村民"政治信任"和"社会信任"的内生性问题。本文旨在揭示我国特定政治体制中"政治信任"对村民选举参与所起到的特殊作用,并探讨在一个"压力型"政治体制下推行基层民主选举所可能存在的内在矛盾及进一步改革的方向。

Based on a nationally representative survey on villagers' participation in village committee election, this paper analyzes the determinants of villagers' election participation, especially the impacts of villagers' political trust of township governments on their participation behavior. On the basis of rigorous quantitative analysis, the paper establishes the causality from villagers' 'political trust' in township governments to their election participation. Implications with regard to promoting grass-root democracy in a politically centralized regime are also drawn from the analysis. REVIEW