近10a石河子热量变化对当地棉花生产的可能影响分析

Analysis of the Possible Effects on Heat Quantity Change for Native Cotton Yield in Shihezi during Recent Ten Years

利用石河子气象站1997—2006年气象资料,分别计算石河子近10a无霜期的长短以及10℃、15℃、20℃界限温度的初、终日期,持续时数,界限温度积温等热量指标。分析得出:近10a无霜期明显延长;10℃、15℃、20℃的界限温度的初日偏早,终日偏晚,持续日数大部分增加;活动积温显著增多。指出近10a是石河子热量最丰富的时期,并分析了近10a石河子热量变化对当地棉花生产的可能影响。为科学评估石河子气候资源、合理安排棉花生产提供科学参考。

Make use of the meteorological data during 1997-2006 from Shihezi station, the heat index was computed for the frostless season, and the first day, the last day ,the day number of duration and the active cumulative temperature of three boundary temperature （10℃,15℃,20℃） respectively. The results show that during recent 10 years, the frostless season has been extended evidently; the first day of three boundary temperature（10℃,15℃,20℃） has become earlier, while the last day be come later; the most of day numbers of duration have increased; the active cumulative temperature has increased significantly. It＇s pointed that the heat quantity is most abundant during this period; and analyzed the potential effects of heat quantity change on Shihezi cotton yield. So as to provide scientific reference for evaluation of climate resources and reasonable arrangement of cotton planting in Shihezi.