基于风险评判的电网规划方法

The Power Network Planning Method Based on Risk Evaluation

针对市场环境下电网规划风险的特点,提出了一种基于遗憾值(regret)的电网规划方法。文中采用多目标、变权重的遗传算法求取电网规划方案,利用遗憾值对电网规划方案进行评判,从而在完成优化过程中的归一问题以及提高优化速度的同时,使得市场环境下电网规划的风险得以量化,因而能对未来电网投资预测进行有效的指导。算例表明,在负荷预测基础上,基于遗憾值的风险评判方法对解决市场环境下的电网规划问题有一定的指导意义。

This paper proposes an evaluating method based on ＂regret＂ for the risk in power network planning under the market environment. It utilizes the multi-objective genetic algorithm with changeable weighted factors to calculate the ＂regret＂ for the power network-planning projects. As a result, it solves the problem of ＂enclose competition＂ in standard genetic algorithm, improves the optimizing speed, visualizes and quantifies the risk of the power network projects under the power market environment. What＇s important, it provides some directions for the future market investments so as to meet the maximum benefit of the society. Some emulated examples show that with power load forecasting, this proposed method can give some good inspirations to power network optimizing.