四棵树河径流量与气候影响因子分析

Runoff volume of Sikeshu River and its influential factors of climate

运用最小二乘法、相关分析、方差分析等方法对近50年四棵树河径流量,乌苏、克拉玛依站温度、降水等资料进行分析,结果表明:(1)四棵树河径流量年际变化平稳,月际分布极不均匀;(2)四棵树河年径流量以0.107×108m3/10 a的速率增多;(3)四棵树河年径流量时间序列存在着18年的丰枯水年周期;(4)克拉玛依站850 hPa、700 hPa、500 hPa、300 hPa规定等压面平均温度与平均流量的相关系数分别为0.75、0.77、0.77、0.81,并得出二者之间的定量关系;(5)6、7、8三月平均流量与克拉玛依站0℃层相关系数分别为0.75、0.54、0.61。

The correlation analysis and variance analysis methods and so on were used to analysis the data of both runoff volume of Sikeshu River and temperature and precipitation of two meteorological stations in the last 50 years. The results showed that （ 1 ） the annual runoff volume of the Sikeshu River is stable, but its monthly distribution is very uneven; （2） its unoff is increased by 0. 107 × 10^8 m^3/10 a; （3） there are 18-year cycles of the annual runoffvolume in terms of its temporal order with both wet and low water years ; （4） the relations are analyzed between the yearly mean temperatures on the isobaric surfaces of 850 hPa, 700 hPa, 500 hPa, 300 hPa at the Karamay Meteorological Station and the annual runoff volumes of the Sikeshu River and their correlation coefficients are 0.75, 0.77,0.77 and 0.81 respectively, which means that there is an obvious quantitative relationship between the two factors; （5） the correlation coefficients of the mean runoff volumes of June, July and August of the Sikeshu River to the 0℃ level heights at the Karamay Meteorological Station are 0.75, 0.54 and 0.61 respectively.