基于耕地压力指数的陕西省粮食安全状况研究

Grain security of basic cropland pressure index in Shaanxi Province

运用耕地压力指数作为测度粮食安全程度的指标,分析了陕西省自改革开放以来粮食安全状况的变化特点,并针对耕地压力指数变化的特点,采用灰色预测方法对未来15年的粮食安全状况进行了预测。研究结果显示:1978年以来,陕西省耕地压力指数历年都大于1,这表明此期粮食的供给小于需求,粮食处于不安全状态;2005年-2020年,耕地压力指数将持续增大,且大于1,说明此期粮食供需差距加大,粮食安全形势将愈加严峻。据此,提出一系列确保粮食安全的对策与建议。

Using of cropland pressure index as a means to assess the grain security, this paper makes an analysis of the grain security variants in Shaanxi Province since the reform and opening up of China, and furthermore on the basis of the trait of the cropland pressure variant and with the method of gray prediction, predicts the grain security status in the forthcoming 15 years. The results are as follows： cropland pressure index in Shaanxi Province has been larger than 1 since 1978, indicating a continuous period that the grain supply is smaller than the demand and the grain security of the province is at a shaky stage. The years between 2005 and 2020 will witness a growing increase of cropland pressure index bigger than 1, reflecting the widening gap between grain supply and demand and showing a more stressing state of grain security. Therefore, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to ensure the grain security and promote Shaanxi＇s sustainable development.