Fuzzy ISODATA聚类分析法在落叶松毛虫种群动态测报中的应用

APPLICATION OF FUZZY MATHEMATICS IN THE FORECAST OF POPULATION DYNAMIC OF DENDROLIMUS SUPERANS

模糊数学中的Fuzzy ISODATA聚类分析法在害虫预测预报中具有特别广阔的前景。根据黑龙江省桦南县落叶松毛虫[Dendrolimus superans (Butler)]历年发生情况,以当地几个与该虫关系密切的生态因子作为聚类指标即预报因子,应用该Fuzzy方法,把该年虫情划分为猖獗年与非猖獗年二类,给出了种群数量动态的Fuzzy测报模型。

The Fuzzy ISODATA cluster analysis method is introduced to the pest forecast for the first time. Based on the historical records (1974—1985) of the incidence quantity of D. superans (Butler), in Huanan County of Heilongjiang province, a Fuzzy model to rpredict incidence class of the pest was worked out, taking 4 factors (3 climatic factors) that have close relation with this pest as cluster indexes or forecast factors.