GM(1,1)模型在交通事故预测中的应用研究

Study on Application of Grey Model GM(1,1) in Forecast of Traffic Accidents

道路交通事故每年都给我国带来了巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失,如何预防交通事故已成为公安和交通部门亟待解决的问题。在灰色预测理论与方法中,利用累加生成和微分方程描述的GM(1,1)灰色模型,在一定预测时段内具有良好的预测精度和实用性,但对于中长期的预测,其预测值与统计值存在较大的误差,故从模型构造上分析其存在的不足,可为该模型的改进指出方向。

Because road traffic accidents serious casualty and property loss happening in our country every year, how to forecast traffic accidents has become a badly needed resolved question for police and traffic departments. In grey theories and methods, the GM（1,1） grey model described by repeated addition and differential equation, has good forecasting accuracy and practicability during stated forecast period of time. But for middle and long period, the forecast value and statistic value have a biggish error. Analysis on the internal fault in model structure is helpful for pointing out a direction for model improvement.