摘要
本文在以往研究震群性质及其预测方法的基础上,从统计的角度出发,结合"八五"和"九五"地震预报攻关成果中有关震群序列参数的分析方法,对1974年以来,在辽宁及其邻近地区发生的23个震群作了详细研究。根据这些震群时序分布的表象特征,将其分为四种类型:Ⅰ增强型;Ⅱ衰减型;Ⅲ增减型;Ⅳ双丛(峰)型。又根据这些震群参数及有关特征量的统计特征,经认真分析,给出了识别震群性质的标志和定量指标(其中有些是对老指标的修正),进而总结出了较适合辽宁地区的震群性质综合判定方法。同时,与以往判定震群性质的方法还作了比较研究,结果表明,本文方法较以往方法判定结果的质量、信度和科学性等方面都有所提高,因此,可作为辽宁地区中强震短临预报的参考依据。
Based on previous study on the natures of earthquake swarms and prediction methods and having combined the analysis methods of swarm parameters in research achievements during 8th-5 and 9th-5 year plan, 23 earthquake swarms have been studied in detail, which occurred in Liaoning region and its near area since 1974. These swarms can be divided into four types according to apparent characteristics of their time-series distribution which are as follows： Ⅰ. increasing type; Ⅱ. attenuation type; Ⅲ increase and decrease; IV. Double-peak one. The results maybe become a reference to determine swarm character （foreshock sequence, precursory swarm and non-precursory one） . According to the statistic characteristics of the swarms parameters and related feature quantities, the signs and quantitative indexes （ some of them are corrected old one） of judging swarm nature have been posed. Then the synthetic method of judging swarm nature suited to Liaoning region have been summarized. Meanwhile, as compared with previous judge method of swarm nature, quality of judge and creditability have been further improved by the method in this paper. Therefore, the result maybe becomes a reference of short-term and impending earthquake prediction in Liaoning region.
出处
《东北地震研究》
2007年第2期1-15,共15页
Seismological Research of Northeast China
