航运项目投资决策风险分析初探

A Study of Risk Analysis of Investment Decision of Marine Project

对国内外航运项目投资决策风险及其概率分析方法作了探讨，并结合案例分析，应用决策树法进行了风险分析；同时，利用计算机软件包（ｍｉｎｉｔａｂ６．１）进行模拟分析，最后提出了航运项目投资决策风险规避的基本方法。

Applying probability theory to marine project appraisal,the paper focuses on the use of decision tree and Montecarls simulation to determine the project risks in investment decision of marine project, the methods to control the risk items and investors behavior in risk decision making.