中国新经济产业区域专业化水平分析

Industrial Specialization of New Economic Industry in China

通过对中国各省市1998-2005年信息化产业和高技术产业的区位商、状态概率分布与各态历经概率以及Shorrocks指标的分析,得出目前中国新经济产业具有地区发展非常不均衡,产业发展梯度差异大;极少数地区的发展水平远远超过全国平均水平,而绝大多数地区的发展水平都处于较低的水平;各省专业化普遍发展,新经济产业的地域差异正在减小,聚集现象正在发展,聚集状态明显的特征。我国新经济产业与美国木材业的相关数据进行对比分析,得出中国新经济产业发展速度迅猛,但状态极不稳定,具有较大的迁移性。高技术产业比信息化产业相对趋向稳定,信息化产业的发展速度更快,区域状态变化大,区域的分工过程还远远没有完成。

The phenomenon of New Economic Industry brings industrial specialization in China. In this paper, we study models of regional specialization that are composed of location quotient model, probability distribution and ergodic probabilities model, transition matrix and Shorrocks model. We calculate the location quotients that evaluate the level of the specialization of information industry and high science and technology industry. Then we adopt discrete-time Markov chain to simulate the probability distribution of location quotient and get the transition matrix. We calculate the ergodic probabilities and Shorrocks indexes that are used to estimate whether the specialization of regional industry has converged to the steady states. Based on the analyses of all indexes of Chinese information industry and high science and technology industry from 1998 to 2005, we find that Chinese New Economic Industry has taken on a developing progress of regional agglomeration and specialization since 1998. This will still last a period in the future, and the level of specialization will be further strengthened. The regional development of Chinese New Economic Industry is unstable, and the grades of regional development are large. Only a few provinces have a high level of development that is far above the average level of the whole country. Most regions of China still remain at a low level. From 1998 to 2005, almost every province has a general development in specialization. Regional difference of New Economic Industry becomes smaller. Regional agglomeration has developed in the past eight years, and it is an obvious characteristic of New Economic Industry. Compared with the correlative data of lumbering in USA, we draw a conclusion that Chinese New Economic Industry develops quickly, however, the states that have the great mobility are extremely unstable as a result of existence of high values of Shorrocks indexes. High science and technology industry is comparatively more stable than information industry. Information industry has a greater speed. States of regions have changed greatly, and regional specialization division has not been finished yet.