情景分析法在工业用地置换中的应用——以福建省长汀腾飞经济开发区为例

Scenario Analysis on the Replacements of Industrial Land: The Case Study of Tengfei Economic Development Zone in Changting, Fujian Province

从土地综合价值出发,将一般用于宏观研究的情景分析法引入微观领域,根据社会、经济、环境效益的最佳、最差和最可能情景模式,确定工业用地和居住用地开发的情景过程及其对比特征。研究表明,福建省长汀腾飞经济开发区最可能情景下的工业收支比经过16年才能达到平衡,居住和商业用地最可能情景下收支比可以维持在3～5左右的稳定发展水平,在前5年,居住用地的收支比8～10倍于工业用地,然后差距逐步缩小,降低到20年期2倍的水平。这一情景表明,腾飞经济开发区要缩小规模,分步、分阶段地把没有进行开发的闲置土地和3年左右依然处于亏损的企业用地置换出来,工业用地应该由目前的2.5km2缩减到1～1.5km2。

Scenario analyses are usually used for macro-analysis. They are especially effective in dealing with uncertainties. To explore this methodology and make it more suitable for analysis, we use multiple value approach including social, economic, environmental benefits/costs in a decision space and synthesize the land value functions for an actual micro-analysis in the case study. Scenario processes and their characters of industrial land use are compared with that of residential land use by using three scenario patterns namely the best, the worst and the most likely. In the most likely scenario, Tengfei Economic Development Zone, located in Changting County, Fujian Province, would achieve its balance of income and outcome until the end of 16 years. This situation of land use and investment would exceed the budgetary revenue capacity of the local government leading to a serious overdraft scenario. From the curve of the ratio of income and outcome of industrial land use and residential land use, the ratio of residential land use will be 8-10 times over that of industrial land use in the first five years. This ratio will reduce gradually until two folds in the end of 20 years. Accordingly, some parts of industrial land use, such as unused land within two years and used land by those factories which are still in the poor condition within three years in Tengfei Development Zone, should be replaced by residential land use step by step. Therefore, the scale of industrial zone will be reduced from 2.5 km^2 to 1-1.5 km^2 in order to achieve a high efficiency of land use and a sustainable development further.