鲁东—黄海地块与日本南部地震活动相关性分析及因果关系检验

CORRELATION ANALYSIS AND CAUSALITY TEST BETWEEN LUDONG-HUANGHAI BLOCK AND SOUTH JAPAN

对我国华北地区次级构造单元鲁东—黄海活动地块与日本南部地区的地震活动进行了对比分析和相关性检验,并利用随机变量时间序列的协整分析和Granger因果关系检验方法,研究了鲁东-黄海地块与日本南部地区地震能量释放过程之间的关系.结果表明,鲁东—黄海地块4级以上地震活动与日本南部5级以上地震具有相关性和同步性,它们的应变能累积释放序列之间存在较好的同期相关关系.两个区域的应变能累积释放序列都属于一阶单整序列,即它们的一阶差分都是平稳序列,二者之间存在长期稳定的协整关系.进行Granger因果关系检验和基于向量误差修正模型的因果关系检验结果表明,二者之间存在具有一定置信度的单向因果关系.

In this paper, we make a comparative analysis and correlation test for the seismic activities in the South Japan and the Ludong-Huanghai block （a secondary tectonic unit in the North China） and approach the relationship between the energy release processes of these two areas by using co-integration analysis and Granger causality test for the time series of random variables. The results show that the seismic activities in these two areas are correlative and synchronous to a certain extent, and their release series of cumulative strain energy are contemporaneously correlative. Both energy series are first-order difference stationary processes and there is secular and steady co-integration between them. We make a positive analysis on the first-order difference energy series through Granger causality test based on vector error correction （VEC） model and find there is unilateral Granger causality and prominent co-integration between the two energy release processes.