地面运动目标攻击命中概率模型及仿真

Hit Probability Model of Attacking the Mobile Ground Target and Simulation

主要对地面运动目标的攻击命中概率问题进行了建模,包括有:暂停目标模型、移动目标模型和反应距离模型和最终推导出的攻击命中概率模型。在已知目标移动时间、暂停时间和移动速度以及观察间隔时间的概率分布的前提下,应用攻击命中概率等模型,可以计算出在某个攻击范围之内的命中概率。最后通过MATLAB仿真验证了模型。

The probability that a mobile ground target is captured by a sortie with in some specific distance is mainly conerned in this article. These models includ pausing-target model, moving-taret model, reponse-distance model and hit probability model. The probability is calculated from more basic probability distributions of target movement time, pause time, and velocity, as well as from the revisit time used for managing the surveillance and reconnaissance of targets. The hit probability model is used to calculate the probability that a target observed pausing will be within engagement range when the sortie arrives to attack the target. Finally through computer simulation based on MATLAB, the model has been verfied.