台风活动的气候突变

THE JUMP OF CLIMATE CHANGE OF TYPHOON ACTIVITIES

通过近４０年西太平洋和南海台风资料的分析，发现台风活动有着明显的气候振动，并且在７０年代前期发生气候突变，表现为７０年代前期以前台风数增多、台风偏强趋势；７０年代中期以后则相反，为台风数减少台风偏弱趋势。８０年代末台风数再次转为增多趋势，但强度的气候趋势没有发生变化。分析表明，台风活动的气候振动和气候突变有一定的物理背景，它与大气环流特别是西太平洋副高的气候变化有一定关系。

Based on data of typhoon over the west pacific and the South China Sea for the last 40 years,the short term climatic oscillation of typhoon activities is anomalous.The result discovers that tendency of climatic variation of typhoon activities had the jump of climatic change in early 1970s.It shows that before the jump of change the number of typhoon is increased and the intensity of typhoon is intensified,after that the tendency of variation is contrary.In addition, the increase of typhoon number during the recent years suggests again the jump of climatic change in late 1980s,but the intensity of typhoon is not present.The analysis indicated that the short term clilmatic oscillation and the jump of climatic change have certain physical background.Such climatic change tendency of typhoon is related to the climatic oscillations of general circulation and SST,especially to the west Pacific subtropical high.