摘要
介绍一种长期趋势预报方法。该法结合预报经验,按照形势变化特征对500和100hPa高度、太平洋海面温度等多层次月平均格点资料进行分区统计,然后用相似离度理论做计算。其中,既同时考虑空间多层次的气象信息,又从连续几个月的信息变化去进行动态的相似综合,力图使相似比较中的片面性得到改善。用该法对广东降水和气温的长期趋势做预报试验。
A long term tendency forecast method is introduced.With the forecasters experiences and statistic,divisioned study of multi layered monthly mean grid data of 500 and 100hPa geopotential height and Pacific SST based on changes in pattern characteristics,computation is done by the theory of similar discrete value.It is the purpose of the method to improve on the one sided emphasis arisen from similarity comparison by both taking into account information on multiple spatial levels and involving comprehension in terms of dynamic similaring for its change over a period as long as a number of months.It proves satisfactory in forecasting experiment with long term tendency of precipitation and temperature in Guangdong.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1997年第2期180-185,共6页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
关键词
格点资料
相似离度
动态综合
长期预报
天气预报
Grid data Similar discrete value Dynamic combination Long term forecast