数值预报对热带气旋移动路径的预报能力的检验

Test and Analysis of the Forecast Ability with Regard to Tropical Cyclone Track of two kinds of Numerical Forecast

作者利用１９９５年６—１０月影响南中国海的１０个热带气旋实况资料以及５００ｈＰａ天气图，对日本地面２４小时数值预报和ＥＣＭＷＦ５００ｈＰａ数值预报产品对热带气旋移动路径的预报能力进行检验和分析，结果表明：（１）日本的２４小时地面数值预报对热带气旋的路径趋势有一定的预报能力，它对路径稳定的热带气旋预报能力较好，对热带气旋的突变转折预报能力较差。（２）ＥＣＭＷＦ５００ｈＰａ数值预报对热带气旋的移动路径有较好的预报能力，利用它来预报热带气旋的移动趋势、转折突变、登陆区域都有较好的效果，在实际工作中。

Using live data of ten tropical cyclones and 500hPa upper weather charts,which effected the South China Sea from June to October in 1995,the forecast ability with regard to tropical cyclone track of Japan′s 24hr surface numerical forecast and Europe Center of Meteorological Weather Forecast (ECMWF) 500hPa numerical weather forecast were tested and analysed.The results indicate:(1) Janpan′s 24hr surface numerical weather forecast has some forecast ability to tropical cyclone track tendency,and it is better to the stable track of tropical cyclone,but not good to the sudden changing and recuruing tropical cyclone;(2)ECMWF 500hPa numerical weather forecast has good forecast ability to tropical cyclone track.It can forecast tropical cyclone moving tendency,recurving and sudden changing,landing place efficiently,and has good reference worth in practice.