1921年以来贵阳降水变化及未来10-15年趋势预测

Precipitation Changes since 1921 and Tendency Forecast Next 10～15 Years in Guiyang

基于贵州15站降水资料,借助对比、合成、趋势、Morlet小波及方差等分析方法,对贵阳过去80多年降水的月尺度、季尺度、半年尺度、年际和年代际尺度变化进行了分析。结果表明,6月是贵阳一年中降水最多的月份,5月次之;夏季是一年中降水最多的时段,春季次之;汛期（5月-10月）降水和旱期（11月-翌年4月）降水在过去80多年总趋势是向减少的方向发展,且汛期降水存在7-10年和25年左右的振荡周期,旱期8-11年和32年左右的周期振荡也明显。同时,利用周期延拓对贵阳未来近20年的降水变化进行了展望,初步估计,贵阳汛期降水在未来10-15年将处于一个相对丰雨的背景,且出现局地洪涝的频率较大,而秋末至翌年初春在未来10-15年则会更干暖少雨。

The precipitation changes of month, season, semi-annual, inter-annual and inter-decadal scales since 1921 was analyzed by using methods of balance, synthetics, tendency, Morlet wavelet and variance, etc. on the basic of data from 15 meteorological stations in Guizhou. The results show that the most amount of precipitation is in June and in Summer, the amount of precipitation in flood season （May-October） and dry season （November-April） presents the reductive tendency and the oscillation period of precipitation in flood season and dry season is 7-10 years and 25 years, and 8-11 years and 32 years respectively. The precipitation of flood season in next 10 - 15 years will be in the relative plentiful rain period and the flooding disaster in part areas will be frequent possibly, and the climatic situation of dry season will be more and more dry and warm in Guiyang.