利用GM(1,1)模型预测河南省国民经济第三产业产值

Forecasting Production of the Tertiary Industry of Henan Province by Use of GM(1,1) Model

灰色预测法是一种对既含有已知信息又含有不确定因素的系统进行预测的方法.国民经济系统是一个典型的灰色系统,利用灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型,建立了对我省第三产业产值的预测模型.依据1996～2000年的数据,得到了2001～2005年第三产业产值的预测值.将预测值与当年的真实值进行比对表明,预测效果良好。

Grey forecasting model provides a method to forecast a system in which there are both known information and uncertain factors. National economic system is a typical grey system. In this paper, a GM （1,1） model is constructed for forecast production of the tertiary industry of Henan province,then on the basis of historical data from 1996-2000, we predict 2001-2005 the tertiary industry production of Henan. Comparing with the real data, forecasting is of low absolute deviation so model is ideal and acceptable.