缪尔-温特斯指数平滑法在旅游人数预测中的应用研究

Application of Method of Mir-Winters Exponential Smoothing to Forecasting Tourists Number

通过分析季节性预测法基本理论以及在EXCEL中对1994-2005年各个季度城镇居民境内旅游的实际人数作初步处理的基础上,采用缪尔-温特斯指数平滑法预测了1996-2005年的城镇居民各个季度的境内旅游人数,并分析比较了1996-2005年的预测人数和实际人数,得出了缪尔-温特斯指数平滑法用于预测短期各个季度城镇居民境内旅游人数的条件,并提出了用这种方法预测2006年各个季度城镇居民境内旅游人数的可行性;同时指出,这种方法只适用于短期预测,如果外推的期数过多,则有过高估计的危险。

Based on the analysis of the fundamental of the Method of Mir-Winters exponential smoothing and the elementary disposal of the actual seasonal tourists number of the town residents＇ domestic tour from 1994 to 2005 with EXCEL, this paper predicts the seasonal tourists number of the town residents＇ domestic tour from 1996 to 2005 with the method of Mir-Winters exponential smoothing and compares the forecasting tourists number with the actual tourists number from 1996 to 2005, and comes to the conclusion that the method of Mir-Winters exponential smoothing is capable of forecasting the short-term seasonal tourists number of the town residents＇ domestic tour when the conditions are suitable and brings forward that it is feasible to use this method to forecast the seasonal tourists number of the town residents＇ domestic tour in 2006. This paper also points out that it is safe to predict the short-term seasonal tourists number of the town residents＇ domestic tour with the method; otherwise, it will be overestimated if it is long-term.