灰色马尔可夫模型的建设用地预测

A Prediction of Construction Land Use Based on Algorithm of Gray Markov’s Model

通过对灰色系统理论GM(1,1)模型的算法改进,将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫模型结合,既发挥了灰色系统预测精确的特点,又利用了马尔科夫模型对预测波动性数据准确的优势。以陕西省实例,对于在时间序列上展开的具有一定波动性的建设用地数据进行预测,达到了很高的预测精度,可以用于土地利用规划的预测数据,为规划年合理配置土地资源提供依据。

Through arithmetical betterment of gray system theories GM （1,1） model and combining the improved gray model of markov＇s model with the betterment of the data, this paper develops the precise estimation characteristic of the gray system and makes use of the advantage of markov＇s model estimation fluctuant data. With Shaanxi Province as an example, this paper predicts the construction land＇s data lannch on time sequence and fluctuant to an extent of great accuracy, which can be used in estimating data in land use planning and provide basis for the rational collocation of land resource s in the year of planning.