基于AHP的济南市水安全评价研究

A STUDY OF WATER SECURITY ASSESSMENT OF JINAN CITY BASED ON ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

城市化、人口膨胀及水资源利用不合理等问题使得我国水资源面临严峻挑战,特别是城市水安全问题日益突出,如何有效地评价和监测城市水安全对于人类可持续发展具有重要的意义.本文首先探讨了水安全的概念,采用改进的PSR模型选取济南市水安全影响因素,通过层次分析法确定指标权重从而构建指标体系,计算出2000年以来济南市水安全评价综合指数序列,并在此基础上进行相关分析找出了主要影响因子.结果表明:济南市水安全状况趋于改善,但压力、状态、响应呈现不同的变化幅度,人类社会经济活动对水环境的影响较大.最后提出了解决济南市水安全问题的保障措施.

By reason of the urbanization, population expansion and the unreasonable utilization of water resources, the water resources in China are faced with the severe challenge, especially the problems of urban water security are increasingly outstanding. Assessing and monitoring the urban water security effectively is significant to the human sustainable development. Firstly the article discussed concept of water security, on which taken Jinan as the example, used the improved PSR model to choose the influencing factors of the water security. Index weights of water security assessment indicators were determined by AI-IP method, and assessment indicator system was constructed. Then get composite indexes of water security assessment since 2000, on the basis of it, find out the impact factors through the correlation analysis. The results expressed that the water security status of Jinan had been tending to improve since 2000, with different modes of pressure, state and response. Human economical activities have played an important role for that. Finally some suggestions were taken for water security problem.