县域经济发展过程中产业结构演变的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Evolution of Industrial Structure in the Countywide Economic Growth

国内外研究表明,随着经济的发展,产业结构中第一产业比重将不断减少,而第二、第三产业所占比重将逐步增加。就我国县域范围来看,随着县域经济的发展,虽然二、三产业的比重提高,但三次产业结构中,第三产业的变化没有呈现出钱纳里所说的不同阶段产业结构的标准数值。无论从人均收入还是从GDP总量分析,第三产业所占的比重似乎更加趋于某一个数值,其中的原因是县域经济第三产业发展空间相对狭小,服务业的发展更多地集中在大中城市。

Domestic and overseas studies have demonstrated that with the economic development, the proportion of the first industry in the industrial structure is decreasing, while that of the second and the tertiary industries are increasing. However, in the countywide industrial structure, the tertiary industry does not change in the way H. Chenery described in which the industrial structure has a standard data for each development phase, though the proportion of the second and the tertiary industries in the county economy are increasing. It seems that the proportion of the tertiary industry is approaching a fixed data, whether analyzed from per capita or GDP total capacity. It is attributed to the development of service industry mainly in medium or big cities, while in the countywide economy the tertiary industry has a limited space for development.