利率平价理论在中国的表现及修正

Manifestation of Interest Rate Par Value Theory in China and its Correction

利率平价理论是阐述国内外利率水平差异对一国货币汇率起决定作用的基本学说。但人民币汇率与利率关系的实证研究表明,利率平价理论在中国表现失灵。究其原因,主要是由于短期资本流动的有限性、外汇市场缺乏效率和交易成本较高所致。可以考虑引入交易成本和资本管制,对利率平价模型进行修正,以更好地解释人民币汇率与利率之间的关系。

The theory of interest rate par value is a fundamental doctrine to explore and explain the determining functions how the differences between domestic and foreign interest rate levels have upon exchange rate of currency of one country. But the empirical research on the relationship between the Renminbi （RMB） exchange rate and RMB interest rate suggests that the theory of interest rate par value fails in China, owing primarily to the limitation of short - term capital flow, lack of efficiency of foreign exchange market and higher cost of transaction. It＇s viable to consider introducing transaction cost and capital control to correct the theory of interest rate par value for a better explanation of the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and RMB interest rate .