论我国国际收支顺差的成因及应对策略——兼谈此次汇率政策调整的有效性

Also Discussion on the Effectiveness of Exchange Rate Adjustment of July,2005

我国2005年7月21日开始实行了以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度,人民币汇率不再钉住单一美元而形成更富弹性的汇率机制。无论采用马歇尔—勒纳条件进行判断,还是分析汇率水平的变化与国际收支差额的相关性,均可以看出,仅仅通过汇率的调整来调节国际收支不平衡的作用极其有限。因此,还应从改善内部经济失衡、转变对外贸易增长方式、放宽外汇管制、继续深化人民币汇率改革等多方面入手,来改善我国巨额的国际收支顺差。

Since 21 July, 2005, China has adopted a managed, floating exchange rate institution with more flexibility on the basis of market supply and demand, with a reference of a package of currencies, no longer pegging United States Dollar. It can be seen either making judgment with Marshall - Lena Premises, or analyzing the relevance of the variation of exchange rate and international payment surplus, that the role of accommodating imbalance of international payment only by adjusting exchange rate is extremely limited. Therefore, it＇s good for China to take many actions, such as improving internal economic imbalance, transforming foreign trade growth modes, broadening foreign exchange control, further deepening Renminbi exchange rate reform, etc. for improvement of huge international payment surplus in China.