美国对台政策中的公众舆论因素分析:以1958年台海危机为例

Public Opinion's Impact on American Taiwan Policy:A Case Study on 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis

选取发生在1958年的第二次台海危机为案例,通过对艾森豪威尔政府处理台海危机的具体决策过程的细致考察,从实证的角度分析了公众舆论在美国对台政策决策过程中的作用和影响。在危机爆发的最初阶段,公众舆论对台海危机可能引发中美之间的战争的高度担忧,使艾森豪威尔政府处理台海危机的难度加大,不得不将重点之一放在平息和引导公众舆论方面。危机的第二阶段,在公众舆论压力下,艾森豪威尔政府试图寻求避免因沿海岛屿问题而卷入冲突的解决之道;最后阶段,艾森豪威尔决定派国务卿杜勒斯亲赴台湾,以公众舆论为主要理由之一,最终压蒋介石从沿海岛屿收缩兵力,并保证今后不主动挑衅大陆。

This thesis, taking 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis as an example, focuses on the impact of American public opinion on＇American foreign policy. At the first stage of the crisis, the public＇s deep worry about the possibility of direct military conflict between China and the U.S. made Eisenhower administration put plenty of time to explain to the public on its policy. At the second stage, because of the public＇s continued reluctance and opposition to American direct military involvement in the crisis, Eisenhower administration tried to find a solution to avoid military conflict with Chinese mainland in the future. At the final stage, Eisenhower dispatched his secretary of state Dules to Taiwan to press Jiang jieshi to accept his proposal of partly retreat from seashore islands and promise not to attack mainland first in the future.