中国水土资源对经济的“增长阻尼”研究

A RESEARCH ABOUT "GROWTH DRAG" OF CHINESE WATER-LAND RESOURCE TO ECONOMY

根据Romer(2001)模型,每个国家都不可避免会受到水土资源对经济的"增长阻尼"作用,如何定量测度符合中国水土资源特点的经济"增长阻尼",对于宏观水土资源调控目标的制定具有重大战略意义。文章以Romer(2001)模型为分析基础,通过修正前提假设使其更符合中国的水土资源特点,同时,将建设用地加入到土地资源数据中,计量发现水土资源对中国经济的"增长阻尼"为1.18%,是美国的4.92倍,该数据比已有学者计量的结果要小。又通过以下事实的考察,如水土资源在国民收入中的分额正在下降、技术进步、水土资源与其他要素之间的替代弹性大于1,认为水土资源制约对中国经济增长的可能影响至多是中度的。

According to the assumption of Romer （2001）, no country can avoid the ＂growth drag＂ effect caused by the limitation of water and land resource, so it is strategic significance to measure the ＂growth drag＂ which accords with the characteristic of Chinese water and land resource for the establishment of macro - economics object. Based on the model of Romer （2001）, this study modified the hypothesis of the model, and added the data of construction land into the land data, we computed the growth drag of China, i.e. 1.18 percent annually, and it is 4.92 times as much as America＇ s, and the data is smaller than the results Which were computed by the scholars before. This study reviewed the following facts also, the lot of water - land resource in GDP is descending,the technology progress and the substitute elasticity of water - land resource and other factors is bigger than 1. Based on the ＇above analysis, the study deems that the conceivable effect of restrictive water - land resource to economy is moderate at most.