长三角城市旅游规模差异及其位序规模体系的构建

STUDY ON DISPARITY OF TOURISM SCALE FOR CITIES IN YANGTZE-DELTA AND CONSTRUCTION FOR THE SYSTEM OF RANK-SIZE DISTRIBUTION

文章以长三角16个市1991年以来入境游人数为基础,运用变差系数(CV)、基尼系数(G)、首位度(S)、赫芬达尔系数(H5)4个指标分析了长三角城市旅游规模之间存在的差异,研究发现这种差异在波动中逐渐下降。既而在差异研究的基础上去探讨其背后的差异机制——规模分布。根据规模的变化,将长三角各市旅游发展划分为四类:平稳发展型、波动发展型、加速发展型和减速发展型。然后对14年的数据进行位序规模相关系数的回归分析,发现长三角城市旅游规模符合位序规模分布。在此基础上又分析了经济的发展水平、基础设施、服务设施、城市职能、资源分布对差异和规模分布的影响。文章将为各地方政府根据自身的旅游发展状况制定符合实际的政策提供参考。

With the development of tourism industry, research for disparity of tourism development is becoming more and more important in China. The quantity of foreign and domestic tourists has risen in every city, especially the cities of Yangtze - delta. Considering the possible statistical error in the number of the domestic tourists, this paper selects the number of entry - tourists as the criterion of tourism size. Based on the entry - tourists number of 15 cities in Yangtze - delta from 1991, the paper analyzed the difference of tourist scale among the cities in Yangtze - delta with four criterions that included Gini Coefficient, coefficient of variation, centralized degree and Herfindahi Index. Then discovered the difference be decline as its fluctuating. With these study on difference, the paper probed into the internal difference mechanism - Rank - size distribution. According as the transformation of size, the tourism development of cities in Yangtze - delta can be measured off as four： balanced - development, fluctuant - development, accelerated - development and decelerated - development. Via tropical analyze to the coefficient interrelated with rank - size from data of 14 years, the author find that the tourism scale of cities in Yangtze - delta tally with the rank - size distribution. With the basis of this judgment, the paper also studied some factors included economic development level, infrastructure, serving establishment, city function and resource distributing, which has brought about the difference and size distribution. If some government means to stipulate for suitable tourism development strategy, this paper could offer some reference.