湖北省红安县土地整理中的水资源供需平衡分析

Analysis of balanced water supply and demand in the land consolidation project of Hong'an County,Hubei Province

以湖北省红安县红华土地整理项目为例,简要分析了红华地区的水资源现状,并结合项目区土地整理的规划要求,对区域水资源供需平衡做出了分析。结果表明：如按典型年标准估算,得到的区内土地整理后的需水量远小于可供灌溉水量,设计满足项目区的灌溉用水要求,供需平衡十分合理;灰色GM（1,1）预测模型预测项目区灌溉保证率为50%时,全区未来各个年份普遍缺水;而按照采用的灌溉保证率为75%-95%的标准推算,项目区今后几年供需水处于盈水状态。

With the land consolidation project of Hong＇an County,Hubei Province as an example,and on the basis of the study of status quo of water resources in Honghua region,the paper analyzed the equilibrium of supply and demand of water resources in the district with the planning of regional land consolidation.The estimate based on the typical annual water supply and demand showed that the design satisfied the irrigation water demand in the project area because the estimated water demand was far smaller than the irrigation water volume of the land arranged in the area;the supply and demand balance was extremely reasonable.While predicting the irrigation guarantee rate in the project area as50%with grey GM（1,1）forecasting models,there would be water scarcity in the following years.But when the irrigation guarantee rate was estimated as 75%-95%,there would be adequate water supply in the project area for the next several years.