国际贸易就业影响的国际比较——H-O-S及贸易乘数理论对贸易大国的适应性实证分析

Comparison Analysis on the Influence of International Trade on Employment between Countries——Empirical Analysis on the Adaptability of H-O-S and Theory of Trade Multiplier in Large Countries

国际贸易的就业影响,理论界并没有统一的认知,其中影响最大的有H-O-S和对外贸易乘数理论。11国比较分析基本证实了这些理论的现实意义,但由于受全球化和信息技术革命的影响以及不同国内经济形势的影响而复杂多变:H-O-S对就业质量影响的解释强于对就业数量的影响,对就业影响的静态效应的解释优于动态效应;对外贸易乘数理论则是对发展中国家的解释强于发达国家,对20世纪的解释超过21世纪初,对长期静态的解释优于短期动态。

There is no same cognition on the influence of international trade on employment in the theoretical field, among them H -O -S and the theory of trade multiplier are the most famous. Comparison analysis on 11 countries basically proves the significance of the theories, but the whole situation on the influence of international trade on employment varies a lot because of the influence of globalization, the revolution of information technology, and the difference of domestic economic situations. The explanations on the influence of H-O- S on the quality of employment is stronger than its influence on the quantity of employment, and the explanations on its influence on static state effect of employment is stronger than its dynamic effect; the theory of trade multiplier explains more in the area about developing countries than developed countries, more explanations about 20th century than the beginning of 21st, and more explanations on long -term static effect than short -term dynamic effect.