珠江口赤潮生成的天气分型研究

The Analysis of Synoptic Patterns Inducing the Red Tides Breakout in the Zhujiang Esturine

赤潮的爆发是生物、化学、物理等多因素综合作用的结果。温度、风力、风向、气压等气象条件,海况、潮汐、海流及海水的理化特征,如海水温度、盐度、营养盐、微量元素等都是赤潮爆发的重要因子或诱导因素。当前由于海洋生态领域的数值预报仍不成熟,国内的赤潮预测主要还是依靠经验和统计方法为主,如气象条件预报法、水文条件预报法、化学条件预报法、生物条件预报法、卫星遥感预报法或是综合预报法等。本文根据2001年～2005年《沿海海洋赤潮专报》中广东省阳江到汕尾沿海(112°～116°E)即珠江口地区发生赤潮的记录,使用NCEP再分析数据,从气象条件诱发赤潮的角度分析得出最易引发珠江口赤潮的5种天气形势,并用相关性分析方法得出其中两种天气形势的典型场,对预测珠江口沿海的赤潮发生具有一定的指导意义,可在实践中加以应用。

At present the red tides are predicted mainly by using experiential and statistical methods due to the numerical immaturity.There are so many experiential and statistical forecast methods,such as hydrology condition forecast method,chemical condition forecast method,biological condition forecast method,satellite remote sensing forecast method and synthesis forecast method,etc.The meterological conditions in the Zhujiang Esturine are analyzed in this paper and it is found that there are five synoptic patterns inducing the red tide breakout according to “Red tide report for Chinese coastal sea” and NCEP reanalysis data during 2001 to 2005.Two typical synoptic patterns are obtained from the five synoptic patterns using relevance analysis method.The results show that the two typical synoptic patterns are valuable for forecasting the red tide breakout in Zhujiang Esturine.