摘要
本文采用更新后的数据和修正的数据处理方法,分别对我国服务贸易、出口和进口与GDP之间以及服务出口和进口之间的因果关系、长期均衡关系和短期变动关系采用格兰杰因果检验方法、协整分析和误差修正模型进行了计量分析。发现:我国服务贸易和服务出口分别对GDP有单向促进的因果关系和长期均衡关系;我国服务出口和进口之间则存在双向促进的因果关系和长期均衡关系;GDP对服务贸易和对服务出口,以及服务进口对出口的短期偏离有向长期均衡回归的趋势。
Based on the updated data and new method of data processing, this paper adopts Granger Causality Test, Co-integration and Error Correction Model to analyze the relations of causality, long-run equilibrium and short-term variation among the trade in service and economic growth in China. The results are as followed. China＇s trade in service and export of service has respectively one-way causality and long-run equilibrium relations with GDP. There are two-way relations of causality and long-run equilibrium between China＇s export and import of service. The short-term deviation of GDP from its long run equilibrium relation with trade in service or with export of service, and that of import of service from its long-run equilibrium with export of service have the trend of returning to their long-run equilibriums.
