基于Monte-Carlo方法的施工导流系统综合风险分析

Integrated risk of construction diversion system based on the Monte-Carlo method

施工期导流动态风险不仅与水文不确定性、水力不确定性有关,而且与坝体施工进度及其完工工期的不确定性有关。以风险分析为核心,将各种不确定性因素耦合起来研究施工导流系统的综合风险,提出施工进度计划风险分析模型和假定坝体施工进度确定条件下的施工导流风险分析模型,在此基础上,建立基于Monte-Carlo方法全面考虑水文水力不确定性以及施工进度不确定性的施工导流系统综合风险分析模型。实例分析说明,该施工导流系统综合风险研究方法和分析模型是可靠的、适用的。

Not only have hydraulic uncertainty and hydrologic uncertainty influence on dynamic risk of diversion, but also construction scheduling of dam body and its finishing and the construction scheduling uncertainty should be duration. The integrated risk between hydraulic, hydrologic uncertainty analyzed. The paper puts forward the risk analysis model for the construction scheduling and the risk analysis model for construction diversion on the assumption that the construction scheduling is affirmable. Thus the Monte-Carlo method is used to simulate the integrated risk of construction diversion system considering hydraulic, hydrologic uncertainty and the construction scheduling uncertainty. The case study shows that the research of integrated risk model for construction diversion system and its analytical method are reasonable and effective.