麦长管蚜在北京地区发生危害风险模拟研究

Study on risk analysis of Sitobion avenae in Beijing

本文对北京市温度、降水量、麦长管蚜发生量风险因子进行等级划分之后,采用相关分析方法、分级随机模拟方法、马尔柯夫链(MarkovChain)方法等,在麦长管蚜风险函数模型的基础上,对麦长管蚜进行了风险模拟。计算出北京市麦长管蚜的风险概率、风险后果和风险值。结果表明,北京市麦长管蚜发生危害的风险高,1～2级的发生风险很低,4～5级的风险较大,5级的发生风险最高。

Risk factors temperature, precipitation and Sitobion avenae emergence size are divided into grade serials. Sitobion avenae in Beijing pest risk analysis adopt methods of correlative analysis, stochastic simulation and Markov Chain. Base on some models of risk function, risk probability, risk value and risk consequence of Sitobion avenae are calculated, so pest risk analysis, risk forecast and risk decision-making are completed. It is high that risk of Sitobion avenae emergence size in Beijing, risk of 1～2 degree is very lower, risk of 4～5 degree are higher, risk of 5 degree is the highest.