2007年3—5月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

Verification of Medium-range Forecasting Efficiency of T213 and ECMWF and JAPAN Model from March to May 2007

我国3—5月冷空气活动频繁,温度变化剧烈,且沙尘天气频发。为检验数值模式的预报效果,积累预报经验,对T213模式96小时预报产品进行检验分析,并与ECMWF及日本模式的预报结果进行对比分析。结果表明:T213、ECMWF及日本模式的中期预报性能均较好。相对地,ECMWF在对中高纬度大型环流的调整及副热带高压主体的预报方面,日本模式在对850hPa温度的预报方面能力稍强。另外,选取2007年5月8—10日发生在我国的一次沙尘天气个例,分析发现T213与ECMWF模式对于引发此次沙尘天气的地面强风的中期预报指示意义较好,日本模式稍差。

From March to May every year, China usually suffers frequent cold fronts. Because of active cold fronts, during these 3 months, weather in China is characterized by sharp temperatures fluctuations and frequent dusty weather conditions. In order to examine the forecast effect of numerical model and accumulate a wealth of forecasting experience, the 96-hour forecasting products of T213 model were examined and compared with those of ECMWF model and Japan model. The result is that T213, ECMWF and Japan models all work relatively well in mid-range forecast. The ECMWF model shows a good ability in adjusting macro-scale circulation and forecasting the main body of subtropical high-pressure system, while the Japan model is more effective in{orecasting temperatures at 850hpa than other 2 models. In addition, we chose a dusty weather process which ever occurred in 8-10 May , 2007 as a case study. Through analyzing this case, we found that T213 and ECMWF models are more effective than the Japan model in mid-range forecast of the strong surface winds, which caused this dusty weather process.