论财政支农总量平稳合理发展与结构优化

The Balanced and Reasonable Development of Financial Support for Agriculture Total and its Structural Optimization

利用时间序列计量分析方法,以1978-2004年我国财政支农总量数据为依据,建立我国财政支农总量的最佳相关模型及进行预测;同时对财政支农资金在各项被支持内容上的分配比重进行结构性分析,可得出事业费占财政支农比重过高、农业科技支持过低的结构不合理性的结论。

This article bases on the financial amount of support for agriculture in our country from 1978 to 2004 and applies the analytical methods of time series and econometrics and establishes the optimum and forecast models of the financial amount of support for agriculture, synchronously we analysis the proportions of funds in the contents of projects. And draw these conclusions ： the proportion of operating expenses is on high level and the proportion of agricultural science and technology is on low level. And from these conclusions we put forward some relative proposes and countermeasures.