中国的GDP及其若干统计问题

Some Issues and Statistics about China's GDP

本文探讨了GDP统计方法的基本概念和局限性,特别是从历史的角度分析了GDP核算体系对日益增长的无形投资(intangibleinvestment)和知识经济的忽略,并在此基础上对中国经济及其在全球经济中的地位和影响作了重新评估。文章指出,现行GDP统计方法没有包括非市场经济、地下经济和闲暇活动;低估了我国劳务等产业创造的价值及其增长潜力;无法追踪企业在技术革新、产品设计、品牌打造和员工培训这些无形资产方面的投资;忽略了我国经济中迅速增加的知识经济成份,特别是教育投资成份。文章的结论是,由于历史、文化和制度诸方面的原因,这些忽略和低估对处于转型过程中的发展中国家中国来说要远远大于发达国家和其他发展中国家,因此,我国的实际经济总量及其增长率,特别是增长潜力要远高于官方的统计数字。

This paper explores the basic concept of GDP measure and its limitations in a historical perspective. Particularly, it shows how the government＇s decades-old counting system misses the growing portion of GDP-intangible investment, and fails to capture the emerging knowledge-based economy. The paper has reassessed the Chinese economy, its position and impact in this dramatically evolving global economy. The main arguments of the paper are： the current GDP measures do not include the nonmarket economic activities, underground economy, and leisure time; underestimate the value and growth potential in service sector; have no way of tracking the billions of dollars companies spend each year on innovation and product design, brand building, employee training, or any of the other intangible investments; miss the rapidly increasing knowledge component, especially the education investment in the Chinese economy. The paper concludes that, due to historical, cultural, and institutional factors, these omissions and underestimates in China are much bigger than those of industrial countries and the other developing countries, therefore, the actual Chinese economy and its growth rate, especially its growth potential are much larger than the official statistics.