中国房地产价格波动区域差异的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Real Estate Price Fluctuation in Different Provinces of China

本文首先定性地比较了各地房价的波动,发现其波动具有明显的地区不平衡性。进一步,本文基于误差修正模型形式的paneldata模型讨论了房价区域波动的差异,并分析了造成各地区房价波动差异的原因,尤其是货币政策效应的区域差异。结论如下:无论是房价的长期趋势还是短期波动,信贷规模对东、西部地区影响都比较大,中部地区较小,表明政府实施的信贷政策对调控东、西部地区的房价是有效的。实际利率对各区域影响差异不大,且影响较小。人均GDP无论长期还是短期对中部地区房价影响都比较大,表明中部地区房地产市场的发展更多地依赖于该地区的经济发展状况。房价的预期变量在东部地区对房价的短期波动有较大影响。

In this paper, we found the real estate prices in different regions have the same trend, but their growth rates are different through comparing typical provinces＇ real estate price. According to the economic developing situation, we divided 28 provinces into three regions eastern, middle and western. We dynamically analyzed the factors, which determined real estate price fluctuation, based on error correction model and panel data model. In these models, we considered the impact of monetary policy on house price specially. The conclusions are as follows ： firstly, to the long-term trend and short-term fluctuation of house piece, the effects of credit policy in eastern region and western region are stronger, and middle region＇s is weaker. So we think the credit policy is effective to control eastern and western region＇s house price. Secondly, the effects of interest rate policy have no distinct difference in all regions. Thirdly, in middle region, the development of real estate market is more dependent on its economic conditions. Fourthly, anticipating variable of real estate prices only has a remarkable effect in eastern region.