综合风险评价法在工程项目风险分析中的应用

Application of aggregative risk evaluation method for analysis of engineering project risk

风险分析是风险管理的基础,只有对风险进行准确地分析,决策层才能制定并采取有效的防范措施.本文基于模糊集理论从风险大小和风险重要性二维因素变量的角度对风险因素进行模糊评价,并结合工程项目对综合风险进行分析,最后给出一个应用实例.该方法对工程项目综合风险从不同层次进行分析评价,为决策层制定风险管理计划提供了一种有效的风险分析工具.

Analyzing risk is crucial to risk management and manager will make effect measures for mitigating risk with the precise analysis. In this paper, based on the fuzzy sets theory the rate of risk factors is characterized by the fuzzy values and analyzed through two dimension variables of grades of risk and grades of importance, and then the rate of aggregative risk item is evaluated by the two fuzzy sets in the engineering project. Finally, a case study is given to illuminate the proposed method which manager can take advantage of and to the make risk management plans effectively with the rate of aggregative risk at different hierarchy.