灰色组合模型在钻孔瓦斯流量预测中的应用

Grey forecasting method for the gas flow prediction from boreholes

钻孔瓦斯流量直接关系着钻孔抽放煤层瓦斯涌出量及钻孔瓦斯涌出初速度的判定,因此研究钻孔瓦斯流量的变化及发展趋势具有较大实用价值。利用"灰色组合预测"思想,提出一种对多种常用预测模型进行熵权法计算权重的组合预测方法,从而可根据有限的实测数据达到预测瓦斯流量发展的目的,结合工程实例,将灰色组合预测模型和单点模型模拟的结果进行比较,其结果表明组合的灰色模型预测精度较高,对瓦斯抽放设计和矿井安全生产具有较大的指导意义。

Gas flow from borehole directly relates to the gas emission from drill drainage coal bed and judging the initial velocity of gas emission from the borehole. Therefore the study on the change and trend of gas flow has significant practical value, with the idea of combined prediction, an entropy weight combined of normal model forecasting method has been put forward, which can forecast the gas folw development by using limited measured data. The model is exemplified with a real case in which the predicted values of two models are compared. The result indicates that the combined grey model is much higher in its precision and could be taken as guidance in gas drainage and mine safety.