人民币汇率与地区差距——人民币国际化的视角

Exchange Rate of RMB and Regional Gaps——From the angle of RMB Internationalization

本文分析了人民币汇率对国内地区差距产生影响的两种传导机制,即对外商品贸易和外商直接投资两种渠道。为检验此结论,将全国分为东、中、西和东北四大地区,计算Theil系数得到地区差距的指标体系;再结合人民币的实际有效汇率,利用滞后阶数扩展VAR模型(LA-VAR)的方法进行实证分析,得到结论:人民币汇率对国内地区差距具有显著格兰杰影响,广义脉冲响应函数的分析还进一步揭示了影响的方向。这说明,人民币汇率波动对各地区的冲击具有非对称性,人民币版图内的货币体系运行具有较高的净成本。在此现状下急于推进人民币国际化,是缺乏稳健性的。

This paper analyzes two transmission mechanisms including trade and foreign direct investment,through which RMB exchange rate affects regional gaps. In order to identify above analysis, the authors divide China into four parts to calculate theil index which reflect the regional gaps, use the lag-augmented vector autoregressive model to make empirical study and draw the conclusion that there exist Granger Causality between theil index and RMB exchange rate. At last,the direction of RMB exchange rate＇ effect on regional gaps is confirmed by generalized impulse response function.