中国城乡人口迁移数量决定因素的实证研究：1992～2004

A Positive Research on the Determinants of Rural-Urban Migration in China:1992～2004

通过对影响中国城乡迁移的因素进行实证分析,得到如下结论:第一,中国的经济增长对城乡迁移具有比较明显地促进作用;第二,人均耕地面积的减少成为城乡迁移比较重要的推动力量;第三,中国城镇新增就业岗位对城乡迁移具有显著的正向影响,中国城镇失业率对城乡迁移的影响不显著,中国的城乡迁移仍存在盲目性;第四,中国城乡收入差距对城乡迁移的作用不显著。

The article does a positive analysis on the factors influencing the rural -urban migration in China. We find that： （a） the economic growth of China has greatly promoted the rural -urban migration; （b） the reduction of the per capita area of cuhivated farmland becomes a more important determinant on the rural - urban migration in China; （c） the urban newly- created job opportunities have a positive impact on the rural -urban migration, the impact of the urban unemployment rate on the rural - urban migration is not very remarkable ; and （d） the enlargement of the actual income gap between urban and rural areas has a positive impact on the rural -urban migration in China, but not very remarkable.